Changes in the agricultural production composition at the state of Paraná between 1990 and 2005: a quantitative analysis on the performance of the major crops

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to quantify the changes in the agricultural production composition of Paraná State between 1990 and 2005, focusing the following crops: cotton, rice, coffee, sugarcane, barley, bean, tobacco, cassava, corn, soybean and wheat, which together accounted for more than 90% of the area cultivated in Paraná State over the whole period. The analysis was implemented using the shift-share method. It tried to decompose the changes in the production of the eleven crops, considering three components: area effect (decomposed in scale and substitution effects), productivity effect and location effect. The results indicated that tobacco, barley and sugarcane were the crops with the largest annual rates of production growth through the period 1990-2005, mainly due to expansion of the cultivated area, absorbing fields from other crops. Cotton, coffee and rice had a decrease in production, almost exclusively associated with the reduction of cultivated area in the state. We can conclude that the growth of the agricultural production in Paraná, amongst the eleven crops, occured because of substitution between products within this assemblage, the absorption of fields from activities not included in the group (such as pastures, cultivation of fruits and vegetables, reforestation and other), and through gains of productivity, usually influenced by macroeconomic and sectorial policies implemented, and by the particular market dynamics of the considered crops.