Demographic projections in small areas integrated to economic projections: a study of migration scenarios for the Alto Paraopeba region, State of Minas Gerais

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to discuss a proposal for a demographic projection for small areas based on economic growth scenarios in which migration and pendularity of work are, in the short and medium terms, the most important elements of regional demographic dynamics. It is used as case study the Alto Paraopeba, region in Minas Gerais - Brazil, which will receive, for a period of fifteen years, major investments from the mining and steel industries. The resulting effects of these investments, particularly in terms of job creation, will be translated into demographic changes, with the expansion of immigration and, therefore, population growth. Investments will also modify the pattern of regional development planners and impose the challenge of providing the growing population with services and infrastructure. As a way to investigate these scenarios, is discussed a methodology of projection for the region and its municipalities, from sensitive techniques to economic changes. To this purpose, it is discussed the usefulness of a projection technique for small areas - part of a group of techniques known as ratio methods.  The article also proposes a debate about the literature regarding the relation between population dynamics, economic growth and regional planning, which will serve as support for the interpretation and discussion of the results of case study. In particular, it is debated the need to improve the demographic methodologies to include techniques that are more sensitive to migration, demographic component that responds faster to regional economic variations.